G๏TCHA™ Climate Physics







AbsoluteClimo's wholly owned climate model, G๏TCHA, generates consistently skillful forecasts for 57 81 climate elements formatted as gridded data at 4 and 25 kilometer resolution spanning the Earth pole-to-pole from oceans to land to atmosphere. This amounts to over 1 million 25km grid boxes per climate element per G๏TCHA standard time unit (monthly, seasonal), over 22.8 billion grid boxes total up to 60 months (5 years) and over 136 billion at 30 years.

The 'G' in G๏TCHA stands for the geosphere, which the active lithosphere is a layer of, and plays an important role in the climate system. Volcanoes have a relationship with the climate system. Undersea earthquakes and volcanoes impact ocean chemistry, temperatures and sea life. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 cooled the average temperature of the northern hemisphere 0.5° to 1°C and in some places more accumulated cooling over a significant amount of time: July 1992 (mean temperature of 69.3°F or 20.72°C) remains (as of 2019) the sixth coolest July in the U.S. city of Chicago's history dating back to 1872 when records began. The 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland caused material financial losses to commercial aviation across much of Europe in April 2010, including both physical property damage to jet engines and business interruption, with total losses for the industry of $1.7B USD.

Every global climate physics model should be well integrated with, in sync with, and capable of accurately predicting the discontinuous thermodynamics of the entire geosphere. Ours is cutting edge, capable of providing correct risk direction from accurate probabilistic predictions of significant earthquakes ≥ 6.0 magnitude (Richter scale) and major volcanic eruptions worldwide at up to 60 months (5 years) lead time.

June 2009 Sarychev Volcano (Russia); image credit NASA

  • Earth's Surface: Average Temperatures, Maximum Temperatures, Minimum Temperatures, Average Daily Rainfall, Total Rainfall, Total Snowfall, Snow Water Content, Wind Speed and Direction, Wind Gusts, Relative Humidity, Air Pressure, High Wind Days

  • Earth's Surface (indexed): Heating Degree Days, Cooling Degree Days, Stress Degree Days, Air Quality Index

  • Earth's Hydrology: Surface Runoff, Total Runoff, Streamflow, Peak Streamflow, Potential Evaporation, Soil Moisture, 4 inch Depth Soil Temperatures, Palmer Drought Index, Precipitable Water, Flood Days

  • Earth's Oceans: Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures, Ocean Wave Heights

  • Earth's Convective Energy: Lightning Strikes, Lightning Days, Thunderstorm Days, Severe Thunderstorm Days, Hail Days, Tornado / Waterspout Days, Convective Available Potential Energy

  • Earth's Atmosphere Aloft (Clouds): Sunshine Percent, Low Cloud Cover, High Cloud Cover, Total Cloud Cover, Ozone

  • Earth's Atmosphere Aloft (300 millibars): Wind Speed and Direction, Temperatures, Pressure Heights, Relative Humidity

  • Earth's Atmosphere Aloft (500 millibars): Wind Speed and Direction, Temperatures, Pressure Heights, Relative Humidity

  • Earth's Atmosphere Aloft (700 millibars): Wind Speed and Direction, Temperatures, Pressure Heights, Relative Humidity

  • Earth's Atmosphere Aloft (850 millibars): Wind Speed and Direction, Temperatures, Pressure Heights, Relative Humidity

  • Additional Elements: Madden Julian Oscillation, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, 1000-500 thickness

AbsoluteClimo Climate Model Primer

Climate and weather are often confused and conflated.

Weather: hour by hour, day to day, week to week, Earth experiences weather. People are framed by how weather forecasts are carried out and communicated. Computerized weather forecast models are seeded with an incomplete observed image of Earth, and develop amnesia over future time as chaos takes its toll. Weather forecast skill drops off rapidly and is worse than a coin flip after ten days. By twenty days weather forecast skill approaches zero. Weather models require frequent reseeding, refreshing and tweaking, but the effects of amnesia and chaos always win.

Climate is the accumulation of weather over periods of one month or longer. Weather records spanning 30 years are compiled into a climate base period. The 30-year base period serves as a foundation to calculate statistical averages (normal), anomalies (above or below normal), and provides a useable frame of reference of what to normally expect. To capture the dynamical effects of Earth's climate, the 30-year base period is updated and shifted forward incrementally once a decade.

Climate expresses variability over periods of months, seasons and a year or more. Some seasons are colder or warmer than the 30-year normal which may impact business operations or sales. Some months are rainier than normal, some seem about right (near normal) or some are drier than normal. Elementary statistics are incapable of predicting this variability.

All of the world's planetary climate models have historically been funded and/or operated by governments and universities worldwide, typically research labs. Perhaps surprisingly, nearly all these operational government climate models have not been around more than ten years, and have been "tuned" to predict long-term statistical climate averages and trends on the order of decades to centuries. These government operated climate models use the flawed approach borrowed from weather models where amnesia and chaos take over. The net result has been limited skill (worse than a coin flip) climate forecasts for periods of months or longer. This poses a problem for business organizations economically sensitive to climate variability for periods coinciding with business cycles of months, quarters, seasons and a year+.

To provide businesses and organizations with new options to confidently plan and hedge climate risk, AbsoluteClimo developed G๏TCHA, its homegrown whole Earth climate prediction model. G๏TCHA predicts the variability of climate physics up to 60 months into the future with consistent skill. G๏TCHA computes and carries out its forecasts on multiple 4-km and 25-km arrays spanning the entire Earth at various depths from the oceans and land masses to the atmosphere. G๏TCHA's forecasts include confidence and statistical comparisons to the current 30-year base period. AbsoluteClimo has achieved this paradigm shift with a new scientific modeling method. G๏TCHA also deprecates limited skill human curated outlooks, almanacs, tea leaf readers relying on jargon, oversimplified indexes, overly complex blenders, and similar forms of entertainment.

The climate system can abruptly and chaotically turn on a dime. Contact AbsoluteClimo to learn how G๏TCHA can help your enterprise and for more information about our licensing terms: info@absoluteclimo.com


G for geospheric (land)
- Earth
T for theta (temperature)
C cryospheric (ice, snow)
H hydrospheric (water)
A atmospheric (air)