Clim๏Cats™ Financial Models

THE WORLD'S FIRST FINANCIAL RISK AND OPPORTUNITY MODELS LINKED TO CONSISTENTLY SKILLFUL AND WELL CALIBRATED GLOBAL CLIMATE PHYSICS PREDICTIONS

SKILLFUL, WELL CALIBRATED CLIMATE MODELING AND MACHINE LEARNING UNITE!

Clim๏Cats are the world's first financial models linked to consistently skillful physical climate predictions, including both climate-driven catastrophe (cat) risk and non-cat business financials for making better informed mission critical decisions with confidence. Clim๏Cats can be custom tailored to help discover your enterprise's climate risk exposure or opportunities, such as for sustainability finance and investing, or simply to better understand the price of climate and probabilistically assess future risk.

Clim๏Cats includes a standard family of natural cat predictive models which forecast impacts and financial losses worldwide with skill, with up to five years lead time. Longer term climate-finance analysis may in some cases be possible such as for municipal bond holders. Clim๏Cats are the world's first cat risk models linked to skillful climate physics predictions. Clim๏Cats standard set of models also includes climate-driven commodity, phenology, human health and business revenue predictive models.

Clim๏Cats integrates with G๏TCHA, AbsoluteClimo's proprietary global climate physics model, to drive financial outcomes. Clim๏Cats uses a novel machine learning predictive engine which links complex non-linear climate physics with financial impacts, both risks and opportunities. Losses generated by Clim๏Cats are normalized for inflation, population and other exposure or business related changes.



Clim๏Cats vs Traditional Cat Models: The old blind cat is out of the bag

Traditional cat models, which have been around for 20 to 30 years, rely on historical data, statistics, Monte Carlo simulations and probabilities to take views of natural catastrophe risk based on the past. Unfortunately, the trend is not your friend. These rear view mirror methods have become less reliable under a dynamic climate (change) regime, resulting in the old cat models becoming increasingly "blind" to tail risk events such as wildfires, while catching insurance companies and actuaries by surprise.

Traditional cat models can not integrate with traditional climate physics models because they too are unreliable and are likely to remain unreliable for another 20 to 30 years due to their flaws. Who has time to wait around three more decades for the old cat models to perhaps one day get transplant surgery to improve their frameworks?

AbsoluteClimo took a fresh approach to cat risk predictive modeling by linking and integrating Clim๏Cats with its global climate physics model, representing a welcome new direction in financial risk modeling. With Clim๏Cats, AbsoluteClimo does the heavy lifting forecasting climate-driven cat loss outcomes or related business-meaningful non-cat outcomes. There is no need to get lost in an ocean of "big climate data", understand climate physics jargon, deal with unfamiliar gridded data sets, or hire intermediaries stuck in an infinite loop of fortune-telling from reading the tea leaves of the 30 year old antiquated El Niño La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) paradigm.

“Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability.”
– Nicholas Nassim Taleb (Author of the Black Swan), comment on SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

AbsoluteClimo can help steer you out of stochastic fog with forward climate-financial risk assessment that is probabilistically accurate.

Meet the (growing) Clim๏Cats Family

Global Losses and Events:

  • Total Losses

    2021 Global Total Economic Losses Forecast Summary
    AbsoluteClimo's Clim๏Cats is calling for an active loss year globally. Based on our proprietary database, total annual economic losses typically run near $200 billion USD. For 2021, Clim๏Cats is forecasting the most likely range of losses ranges from the low end of $130B USD to the high end of $320B USD, with the Clim๏Cats model consensus loss forecast to fall in the range of $200B to $240B USD which is somewhat above normal. For the Clim๏Cats 2021 full exceedance curve probabilistic details contact AbsoluteClimo: info at absoluteclimo dot com.

  • Convective Storms (tornadoes, thunderstorms, lightning, wind, hail)

  • Tropical Cyclones (Atlantic Ocean)

  • Tropical Cyclones (Eastern Pacific Ocean )

  • Tropical Cyclones (Central Pacific Ocean)

  • Tropical Cyclones (Western Pacific Ocean)

  • Winter Storms

  • Wildfires

  • Droughts

  • Floods

  • Earthquakes

  • Volcanoes


Regions:

  • Australia

  • Africa

  • China (Mainland)

  • Hong Kong (HKSAR) / Greater Bay Area

  • Taiwan (ROC)

  • South Korea

  • Japan

  • Philippines

  • Vietnam

  • Europe

  • North America (U.S., Canada)

  • South America (Brazil)

  • MENA / Greater Middle East

  • India

  • Bangladesh

  • Guam

  • Others on demand


Clim๏Health - Human Health:

  • United States Seasonal Flu Casualties

  • United States Asthma Casualties


Clim๏Commodities - Phenology and Commodities:

Coffea arabica fruit
Coffea arabica (fruit): Hawaii (Maui, Kula), image credit Forest & Kim Starr

  • Brazil Arabica Coffee Yields

  • World Cocoa Yields

  • United States Corn Yields

  • United States Soybeans Yields

  • United States Wheat Yields

  • United States Cattle Price

  • Natural Gas Average Annual Price


  • Business Revenue:

    • United States Skier Visits (Tourism)

Contact AbsoluteClimo for licensing terms and to learn how Clim๏Cats can be used to help your enterprise: info at absoluteclimo dot com.


“Climate change is the most serious issue the world faces today and yet, globally, society remains underinsured for climate-related disasters. Our sector must continue to work with governments and other stakeholders to make insurance more accessible and close the protection gap.” – John Neal, CEO Lloyd’s 2019 Singapore International Reinsurance Conference (SIRC)